The impact of migration loss on economic indicators of Primorsky region

• Andreev V.A.

  Andreev V.А. Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service. Vladivostok. Russia

The article presents results of a migration loss’ impact analysis on the indicators of economy of Primorsky region until 2021. It is concluded that migration loss, along with natural loss, is a limiting factor for the development of the economy. At the same time, new jobs and low unemployment are not always factors that cause a decrease in migration loss. The reasons for  mobility of the population include a deterioration of the socio-economic situation in some areas of the region, as well as the lack of opportunities for young people for self-realization and professional  development.  For  the  advanced  development  of  the  region’s  economy,  the growth  of  the  gross  regional  product  should  be  higher  than  102.0-103.0  percent,  that  is, higher than the average Russian’s economy indicators. The solution of the problem may be programs to stimulate external and internal labor migration of citizens of the Russian Federation to the point of economic growth in the region. In the period up to 2025 it is planned to launch large territorial production clusters related to shipbuilding, auto assembly, petrochemistry in the areas adjacent to the international transport routes Primorye-1 and Primorye-2, near the port areas of the sea ports of Zarubino, Vostochny, Koz’mino and Vladivostok. Thus, there are opportunities for balanced development of the region, which will consolidate the population in the border zone with China and increase the population density of Primorsky Krai. As a result of the implementation of such a scenario, the population can grow by 22–25 thousand people until 2025, and until 2030 it can increase by 100 thousand people, due to the implementation of state programs that provide migration inflow. Due to scenario of advanced economic growth in Primorsky Krai, considering the implementation of all announced investment projects and government programs, the growth of GRP in the medium term is projected to be 103.0–104.0 percent. With the restoration of natural and migration growth, it can be expected that the population of the region will be 2 million people until 2030. That’s a scenario that provides for the Russian Federation a retention of the economic space of Primorsky region, which is important for maintaining competitiveness and preserving the impor-
tant geopolitical status of the Russian Federation in the Far East.

Keywords: migration net loss, economic development, gross regional product, employment,
population.